Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
